Why We Shouldn’t Bank on Growth – HBR

I think the title would better be something like — the errors of our thinking process.   Recommended read for all leadership and management.

Excerpt:  One of the most consistently problematic decision-making biases is the overweighting of recent data and personal experiences. Psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky attributed this tendency to what they called the “availability” heuristic (rule of thumb): our minds give inordinately heavy weighting to the most readily available/recent/vivid data and experiences. This causes us to believe that the future will likely resemble the most recent past. As a result, we tend to extrapolate prior trends into future estimates in many domains, ranging from career and compensation expectations to global macroeconomic projections. Unfortunately, it is usually when conviction in these expectations is highest (i.e. the trend has been intact for a while) that mis-estimation is most likely to end with violent disappointment.

This is especially true with exponential growth. The fact is, all growth is unsustainable. I encourage anyone doubting this statement to view the video by physicist Al Bartlett on YouTube, which has been modestly labeled “The Most Important Video You’ll Ever See” and has been viewed more than four million times.

Read full article via Why We Shouldn’t Bank on Growth – Vikram Mansharamani – Harvard Business Review.


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